Climate Change part 4
In part 4 of 4 of this series focused on climate change I examine a lengthy video about the ecological and climate crisis
This is the final video of four to explore climate change and ecological decline through videos on YouTube. In this final piece I want to move away from climate change itself to look instead at the ecological side of things and how nature itself is beginning to struggle. To do so I’m going to explore a lengthy video where a banker highlights the ecological situation in detail.
All you need to see to understand the ecological and climate crisis with David Ramsden
Four years ago, the Researchers Desk interviewed Sir David Ramsden, a British economist from the Bank of England and advisor to various UK governments. Researchers Desk describe themselves as a non-profit organisation “for dialogue between researchers and civil society, educators and decision-makers regarding the ongoing climate and biodiversity crisis.” A high-level economist is not generally someone you think about when asking for inputs and ideas about the climate or the ecological crisis, which makes this interview more fascinating. This is, however, a long video (coming in at 44 minutes). So, my notes here are more bullet points selected from the lengthy presentation. So, what did I learn?
Earth is only habitable because it has a balanced climate system. This can be broken down into five aspects:
Cryosphere (polar icecaps, sea-ice, permafrost, seasonal snow cover, mountain glaciers)
Geosphere (land/soil)
Hydrosphere (oceans, lakes, rivers)
Ecosphere (ecosystems – land & sea)
Atmosphere (air)
Losing any one of these aspects will make this planet uninhabitable. While presently things feel secure enough, looking at these aspects in more detail we see that ice loss is accelerating, crop failures are increasing, droughts are increasing, wildlife decline is accelerating, fish stocks are low and declining, air pollution kills 9.7 million a year. This is happening for various reasons, but predominantly due to climate change.
Burning fossil fuels releases carbon which expands the greenhouse effect. We need a certain amount of a greenhouse effect for the temperature to be within the habitable range, but the excess carbon that fossil fuels create is raising the average temperature. Just a small average temperature change can disrupt the carefully balanced systems very easily causing more storms, more floods, and ocean acidification as well as droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires.
The Jet Stream is a narrow band of wind which separates the cold Arctic air from warmer Tropical air. The Jet Stream is slowing down and meandering. Sometimes it even blocks changes in our weather, which leads to more extreme weather patterns.
The current best estimates suggest that between 2-3.7c civilisation would probably collapse as we know it and at 3.2-5.4c most life on Earth would be wiped out. We are currently heading towards that 2c which is very close to the collapse of civilisation! The pledges made at the Paris Accords are not enough to keep us under 2c and we are already breaking these pledges. We are currently heading above the red line.
IPCC are now saying we will shoot through 1.5c by 2041 no matter what we do. In 2018 projections were suggestion an increase of 3.2c by the end of the century, but now the approximations suggest 4c!
The Ecological Crisis
The human population is growing but the ecosphere is not growing (and can’t grow). Many humans consume more than is available (our ecological footprint). This is temporarily being propped up by releasing the energy stored in fossil fuels and destroying natural habitat, while allowing our waste to accumulate.
Ramsden paints a disturbing picture that we are now in the 6th mass extinction event, with up to 1 million species facing extinction, which is, in itself, an equal threat as climate change.
Ramsden offers up some key statistics about Britain’s role in all of this. As a country we might be small but the two big fossil fuel companies, BP and Shell, are 40% British-owned. In addition, we give the fossil fuel industry £10.5 billion a year in subsidies which is way more than any other EU member state. Finally, per-person, we emit only 13% less CO2 than China.
These companies use various techniques to increase denial of the scientific data. These are:
Fake experts – creating the illusion of an ongoing scientific debate
Logical fallacies – e.g. using red herrings or jumping to conclusions
Impossible expectations – demanding unrealistic standards of proof or claiming insufficient evidence
Cherry picking – using small amounts of data & not considering all the evidence
Conspiracy theories – claiming that all scientists are conspiring to exaggerate or falsify the evidence
Consensus amongst scientists is actually overwhelming at around 97% that humans are causing global warming!
So, what are the solutions? Stop using coal, oil, and gas as quickly as possible by using renewable sources and/or getting a heat pump. In addition, we need to divest from fossil fuel industries (for individuals choosing ethical banks). We should also reduce jet aircraft and cruise ship journeys and reduce car use or switch to electric options. Food is the largest pressure on the system which means that we need to switch to a plant-rich diet (reducing meat intake) and eat locally where possible. We should also reuse and recycle e.g. composting. Finally, we should reduce what we buy – less new things, choose sustainably produced, repairable items.
Around the 22-minute point we get a nice tune telling us about how bad things are going to get! At the end Ramsden quotes himself:
“If we want to witness the breakdown of our society, the collapse of civilisation, unimaginable amounts of human suffering and death, all we have to do is…
NOTHING
Just carry on as normal and it will all come to pass, …probably sooner than we think.”
Some thoughts
This all sounds bleak and somehow, what David Ramsden suggests (and what is often suggested) for individuals to do, doesn’t seem like enough considering the overwhelming threat of climate change and biodiversity loss. The ultimate solution lies in the hands of our politicians and big business, both of which have shown themselves to not be up for the job at all. So, where does that lead us? All we can do are the small things, because small things build up, they multiply, they grow, and they can replace the big overwhelming threats. David Ramsden ends by asking people to simply talk about climate change and that is part of the reason why Side Stepping Normal exists – to talk, to discuss, to share knowledge and ideas, and, ultimately, to find light in the darkness.
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